You may have seen headlines recently saying foreclosure filings are starting to increase.

And when people hear that, their minds often go straight to one place:

2008.

But before jumping to conclusions, it’s important to look at what the data actually shows.

Because while foreclosures have ticked up slightly, the overall picture today looks very different from the housing crash.

Foreclosures Are Rising — But Context Matters

Yes, foreclosure filings have increased a bit.

But they’re still extremely low compared to historic levels.

One of the best ways to measure risk in the housing market is by looking at serious mortgage delinquencies — loans where homeowners are more than 90 days behind on payments.

While those have increased slightly, data from the New York Fed shows they still remain low. And they aren’t anywhere close to levels seen when the market crashed (see graph below):

Today, about 1% of mortgages fall into that category.

During the housing crash, that number was closer to 9%.

That’s the difference between:

• 1 in 100 homeowners today

• 1 in 11 homeowners during the crash

Those two situations are not even remotely comparable.

Even Delinquencies Don’t Automatically Lead to Foreclosures

Another important point is that not every homeowner who falls behind loses their home.

Many people work out repayment plans with their lenders.

Banks are often willing to do this because foreclosures are expensive and time-consuming for them as well.

That’s why the number of actual foreclosure filings is even smaller.

Right now, only about 0.3% of homes are in foreclosure filings.

That’s not a wave of distressed properties entering the market.

It’s a ripple.

Why Mortgage Payments Stay a Priority

Another interesting pattern shows up when looking at consumer debt.

Data from the New York Fed shows that delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans have risen more noticeably than mortgage delinquencies.

In other words, when households feel financial pressure, they often prioritize their housing payment above other bills.

That makes sense.

For most people, the last thing they want to risk losing is their home.

Home Equity Is Another Major Safety Net

There’s another major difference between today’s market and the 2008 housing crash:

home equity.

Over the past several years, rising home prices have created substantial equity for many homeowners.

That equity gives people options.

If a homeowner experiences financial stress, they may be able to:

• sell the home before foreclosure becomes necessary

• walk away with remaining equity

• restructure their finances

During the housing crash, many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth, which made selling difficult.

Today, the situation is very different.

Bottom Line

Are foreclosure filings increasing slightly?

Yes.

But they’re still far below the levels seen during the housing crash.

Low delinquency rates, strong homeowner equity, and lender flexibility all suggest that today’s housing market is fundamentally different from 2008.

So if recent headlines have you wondering whether the market is heading for another foreclosure wave, the data tells a very different story.

Perspective matters.