The headline numbers coming out of Trenton this week aren’t particularly encouraging. Across New Jersey, home sales fell another 9% in March compared to the same time last year, and unsold inventory climbed 15% — a reversal that would have been hard to predict heading into the new year. The culprit is the same oil-and-inflation shock that has been rattling financial markets since February. With the conflict in Iran driving energy prices sharply higher, mortgage rates that had been drifting down reversed course fast. The 30-year fixed rate sits at 6.34% nationally today — down slightly from 6.40% last week as ceasefire talks in Iran pushed Treasury yields lower and eased oil price fears. Rates are still up from a 2026 low of 6.09%, and meaningfully higher than most market observers expected at the start of the spring selling season. The Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode, and most housing economists expect rates to stay above 6% through the rest of the year.

When statewide numbers move like this, it is easy to assume the correction is uniform. It isn’t. Mortgage rate shocks hit different parts of the market very differently. The buyers most exposed right now are those stretching to afford a first home in the $400K–$600K range, where every quarter-point increase changes what they can qualify for. At the $1M–$1.5M tier, the picture is more nuanced. These buyers typically bring larger down payments, carry more wealth in equity, and are not making purchase decisions based on a single week’s rate print. That structural difference matters, and right now it is showing up clearly in the numbers.

Essex County is telling a very different story than the rest of New Jersey. In March, county-wide contract sales came in at 344 — down only 3.4% year-over-year, compared to a statewide decline of 9%. Essex County is outperforming the state by a factor of nearly three. Even more striking is what happened to inventory: unsold homes in Essex County stood at 628 this March, versus 627 a year ago. The state went up 15%. Essex County moved by a single home. Months supply held steady at 1.8, unchanged from March 2025, while the statewide figure climbed from 1.9 to 2.4.

What explains this? A good part of the answer sits at the upper end of the market. Right now in the $1M–$1.5M price range, Montclair has 5 active listings — and 17 homes already under contract. The homes that are still available have been on the market an average of 10 days. Millburn looks nearly identical: 2 active listings, 6 under contract, with most of those properties going under agreement in under two weeks. These are not the metrics of a market that is slowing down. Otteau’s absorption data confirms it — Montclair’s months supply compressed to 1.0 in March while its unsold inventory fell 23% year-over-year, and Millburn’s months supply dropped from 2.1 to 1.2 as contract sales climbed 50% versus the same month last year.

Not every town in Essex looks like this. Livingston saw sales fall 47% year-over-year in March, with months supply nearly doubling. Part of that story may be structural. Aggressive new construction activity is replacing teardowns with $2M-plus product, compressing available inventory at the $1M–$1.5M tier at the same time commute patterns are shifting back in favor of towns with direct rail access to the city. Montclair and Millburn both sit on the Midtown Direct line. Livingston doesn’t — and as return-to-office solidifies, that distinction appears to be showing up in the data.

Built in 1923 and thoughtfully renovated in 2022, this center hall colonial sits steps from Watchung Plaza and the Walnut Street corridor — walking distance to the Midtown Direct. The original details worth keeping are all here: hardwood floors throughout, stained glass accents, and a scale that feels right for the price. The kitchen has been fully updated with a quartz center island, Thermador appliances, double wall ovens, and a dining area that opens directly to the backyard. Upstairs, the primary suite delivers a custom closet and a renovated spa bath. Two more bedrooms complete the second floor, with a third level adding two additional bedrooms and flexible space well-suited to a home office or guest suite. Finished lower level with rec room. The 66x160 lot is private, level, and has a bluestone patio that makes outdoor living genuinely usable. At $1,399,000, this is exactly the kind of move-in ready colonial — real character, real updates, real backyard — that the Montclair $1M–$1.5M market does not have enough of right now.

The statewide slowdown is real, and it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise. But real estate has never been a statewide business. It is a block-by-block business, and in the parts of Essex County where The DeSilva Team works every day, the spring market is playing out very differently than the headlines suggest. If you have been sitting on the sidelines because the national news felt uncertain, the local data is telling you something worth paying attention to. We’re happy to walk you through what it means for your specific situation.