Last fall’s data says wait — and it was worth about $32,000.
Northern NJ Real Estate Weekly - The DeSilva Team
A quick gut check before you read on: if you were selling this fall, would you launch in August or wait until after Labor Day? Hit reply with one word — AUGUST or SEPTEMBER — and I’ll share the tally next week. Then keep reading, because I pulled every listing that came to market in Essex County last fall and let the data answer for itself.
The Fed held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on Wednesday, but the vote is the story: 9 to 3, with three regional bank presidents dissenting in favor of a hike — the first unified three-way dissent of its kind in nearly a decade. June’s projections already pencil in a quarter-point increase by year-end, and the bond market took the hint, pushing the 10-year Treasury back toward 4.66 percent after the meeting. Mortgage rates haven’t followed yet — the 30-year is still holding near 6.5 percent, roughly where it settled after mid-July’s break lower — but the floor under rates looks firmer than it did two weeks ago. If your fall plans depend on cheaper money arriving first, Wednesday was a reminder not to count on it.
Every August, the advice writes itself: list now, beat the September flood. It’s the industry’s reflex — mine included. So before repeating it, I tested it. I pulled all 407 single-family homes that came to market in Essex County between August 1 and October 15 of last year, priced between $550,000 and $1.1 million, and followed each one to the end of its story — sold, expired, withdrawn, or relisted. I ran the numbers in Essex County because it offers the cleanest dataset in our coverage area, but the mechanics at work — vacation-week staleness, the post–Labor Day return of the buyer pool — run Northern NJ-wide.
The flood was real: September brought 194 new listings against August’s 132, a 47 percent jump in competition. And the flood won anyway. September’s launches sold in a median 15 days at 107.2 percent of original asking price, with only 13 percent needing a price cut first. August’s launches took 22 days, cleared 102.7 percent, and cut 18 percent of the time. The sharpest window of the entire fall was the first two weeks of September: a median 108.5 percent of list, with 79 percent of those homes selling over asking — and not as a Montclair phenomenon, but broad-based across West Orange, Maplewood, Verona, and Nutley. The slowest window was the back half of August, at a 30-day median — twice the wait of a September launch, as new listings sat through vacation weeks going stale before the buyer pool returned.
To be precise about what the data does and doesn’t say: an August listing was not meaningfully less likely to sell eventually. Once relists shake out, eventual-sale odds were essentially identical — about 72 to 74 percent for both cohorts. The difference was speed and price. On a $700,000 asking price, the gap between August’s and September’s sold-to-ask ratios works out to roughly $32,000. Same houses, same fall, different launch date.
This year’s setup rhymes. As of this week, 163 single-family homes are active in this bracket across Essex County against 240 already under contract or in attorney review — 1.47 homes spoken for per home available, with the median active listing just 24 days on market. Demand is outrunning supply into the same calendar. If a fall sale is on your mind, my advice is the opposite of the reflex: use August to prepare — pricing strategy, photography, the punch list — and launch in the window after Labor Day, which falls on September 7 this year. Last fall, that timing was worth real money.
Analysis: Garden State MLS listing records, listed 8/1/2025–10/15/2025; inventory as of 7/31/2026.
21 Crossbrook Road, Livingston — $799,900. A 1930 Tudor colonial in the Burnet Hill neighborhood: three bedrooms, a wood-burning fireplace, hardwood throughout, and a 150-foot-deep lot with the big-ticket items — boiler, roof, renovated baths — already handled. Zoned for Burnet Hill Elementary, minutes to Route 280 and NJ Transit, taxes at $12,935. It hit the market Wednesday, and showings begin at this weekend’s open house. Why it makes the letter: it’s launching into a bracket where September starts cleared 107 percent of ask last fall. For buyers, these pre–Labor Day weeks are the quiet side of that same premium — the window before the wave.
See the full listing for 21 Crossbrook Road →
The best listing advice isn’t a slogan; it’s a calendar with receipts. Last fall’s receipts went to sellers who prepped in August and launched after Labor Day — and this fall’s supply math leans the same way. Weighing a sale? Reply with the word TIMING and I’ll build a week-by-week launch plan for your town. Buying? Reply FEED and I’ll set up a private MLS feed tuned to your criteria before the fall wave arrives. And the poll stands — AUGUST or SEPTEMBER — tally in next week’s letter.
Prefer to talk it through? Grab 15 minutes
Sources: Federal Reserve; Bankrate; Garden State MLS. Market data deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If your home is currently listed with another broker, this is not a solicitation.
Figures in this edition reflect data as of the original send date above and are not updated retroactively; treat this as dated market commentary, not a current snapshot. Rate and market data as cited in the original edition; imported from The DeSilva Team's newsletter archive.