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What Changed This Week
Rates crept back up this week. As of this morning, the 30-year fixed is sitting at 6.51% — the highest it's been since last September. The Iran conflict has driven oil prices sharply higher, putting both inflation and interest rates back on a rising trajectory. The knock-on effect is one we've seen before: rising rates reinforce the lock-in effect for homeowners with sub-4% mortgages, keeping would-be sellers on the sidelines and squeezing supply further. What looks like bad news for buyers is actually tightening the competitive landscape at the same time.
Why It Matters
Rate volatility matters everywhere, but it doesn't affect every buyer equally. In the $1.2M–$1.5M move-up tier, buyers typically have meaningful equity, strong income, and a specific reason they're moving — a family growing into more space, top-rated schools, a committed life-stage decision. Rate swings affect their math at the margins; they don't change the fundamental decision.
And here's what the data actually shows: the greater-than-$1M segment is the only price tier in New Jersey currently showing year-over-year sales growth. While activity softened across lower tiers, buyers above $1M are moving. The macro uncertainty that's freezing some buyers out is creating less competition for those who are ready to act — which is exactly the kind of opening that's hard to manufacture.
On the Ground in Northern NJ — Morris County
This week we're focused on Morris County, and the current absorption data paints a varied but consistently competitive picture. Across the county, months of supply ranges from under one month in the tightest towns to just over four in the most supply-rich — but nowhere near the six months that would signal a balanced market. Towns like Madison Borough and Chatham are running at less than 1.2 months of supply, meaning homes are essentially gone before most buyers can react.
Randolph sits at 3.5 months of supply right now — higher than some neighbors, but still well below balanced market territory, and worth putting in context. That number reflects the full market across all price points and property types. At the $1.2M level, you're competing for a much smaller pool of well-finished homes on large lots, and that pool moves on a very different timeline. Randolph's combination of top-rated schools, established neighborhoods, and the Rt. 10 commercial corridor keeps qualified buyers coming back regardless of where national headlines are pointing.
| Deal of the Week $1.2M–$1.5M tier |
12 Spring Brook Drive, Randolph | $1,200,000
4 bed / 3.5 bath / 3,596 sq ft / 1.54 acres / Cul-de-sac / In-ground pool
This is the kind of home that makes a lot of sense on paper and then hits differently in person. It's a 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath colonial set on a 1.54-acre wooded cul-de-sac lot — 3,596 square feet, built in 1990 and updated throughout. The family room has vaulted ceilings and a skylight that pours natural light through the main living area, opening directly into the kitchen. It's a floor plan that feels both generous and easy to live in, which is precisely what the move-up buyer in Morris County is shopping for.
Then there's the backyard. The in-ground pool is framed by mature, established landscaping — blue spruce, sculpted shrubs, flagstone — that took decades to grow in. That level of privacy and finish simply cannot be replicated with new construction. Add a hot tub, deck, and patio, and this outdoor space genuinely competes. Taxes are $18,530 annually, and the listing just hit the market two days ago.
The Bottom Line
The market is louder than it needs to be right now. Between rate wobbles, oil prices, and geopolitical noise, there's plenty pulling at buyers' attention. But none of that changes what's actually happening on the ground in Morris County: supply is thin, prices are rising, and the data shows the $1M-plus segment is the one area of the New Jersey market where buyer activity is actually accelerating year-over-year. Well-positioned homes at this price point don't wait around for the world to settle down.
The buyers who move while others are distracted tend to be the ones who look back on their timing and feel good about it.
Data Snapshot — Morris County Towns
| Town |
Active Listings |
Avg Sold/Mo. |
Mos. Supply |
| Madison Borough |
8 |
10 |
0.8 |
| Chatham Borough |
8 |
7 |
1.1 |
| Montville Township |
26 |
20 |
1.3 |
| Roxbury Township |
27 |
21 |
1.3 |
| Denville Township |
21 |
11 |
1.9 |
| Parsippany-Troy Hills |
46 |
22 |
2.1 |
| Washington Township * |
19 |
8 |
2.4 |
| Randolph Township ★ |
28 |
8 |
3.5 |
Source: NJMLS Absorption Report, April 3, 2026. One-month lookback. Sorted by months of supply.
★ Deal of the Week town | * Washington Twp. includes Long Hill area
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