The Spring That Actually Showed Up

What Changed This Week

Six weeks ago, the economists at Otteau Group made a confident call in their March market analysis: the Iran war's oil price shock would push mortgage rates higher, dampen sales, and delay the spring market into summer. It was a defensible prediction. Rates had climbed from 5.98% to 6.37% in a matter of weeks, inflation readings were ticking up, and the macro picture genuinely looked ugly.

Here's the update nobody is talking about: it didn't happen.

As of Wednesday's Freddie Mac release, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.23% — the lowest level we've seen in any spring homebuying season for three straight years. Bankrate's daily figure today is 6.30%. Six weeks ago, that same rate was 6.57%. The expected drift higher turned into a quiet drift lower, and nobody sent out a press release about it.

Why It Matters

When rates are falling, the reflexive assumption is "buyer's market." That's only half of what's actually happening this spring, and the other half is the part most people are missing.

Bergen County's unsold inventory climbed 25% year-over-year in March — 1,253 homes on the market versus 1,000 at the same time last year. Morris County saw a 17% jump to 609 homes. Essex was the outlier, nearly flat at 628. Statewide, inventory is up about 15%, with more than 16,000 unsold homes now sitting on the New Jersey market. Meanwhile, closed sales are down roughly 9% year-over-year.

Put those two pieces together — rates at three-year spring lows, inventory expanding 15% to 25% across most of Northern NJ, transaction volume meaningfully thinner than a year ago — and you have a combination of conditions that has not coexisted since early 2023. For the $1M–$2M buyer, this is roughly the best negotiating environment of the current cycle. For the $2M+ buyer, it's better than that.

On the Ground in Northern NJ

The regional picture is not monolithic, and that's where the real opportunity lives. In Bergen, where supply expanded the most, the buyer-to-seller ratio has softened from 65 per 100 sellers last March to 47 per 100 this March. Essex, by contrast, has barely moved — contract sales are down only 3% year-over-year, and months-of-supply held steady at 1.8. A buyer who reads only national headlines assumes "more inventory, less competition." A buyer who looks at Essex sees the opposite is still locally true.

The high end is where the story gets most interesting, because it's where the softening is most pronounced. A live NJMLS pull today shows Bergen County has closed 88 homes above $2M so far in 2026 — down from 105 through the same week last year, a 16% decline. Another 92 are under contract and 197 remain actively available, bringing the YTD pipeline to 377 listings. Sales are thinner, but inventory is heavier. That is what a softening luxury market looks like in practice.

The price-tier breakdown is sharper still. In the $2M–$3M band, closings are down 19% year-over-year. $3M–$5M has held roughly flat. Above $5M, closings are down 50% — four in 2025, just two this year. Above $10M, Bergen closed one home through this week last year. This year: none. Eleven homes are currently listed at $10M-plus in Bergen County, and every single one of them is still available. The median list price of Bergen homes that have actually closed this year is $2.67M. That single data point should meaningfully reset assumptions about where transaction activity is truly concentrated — and where it isn't.

The town-by-town view sharpens the picture further. Franklin Lakes has already doubled its 2025 YTD pace, closing 11 homes above $2M versus five at this point last year. Tenafly has held steady (11 then, 10 now). Ridgewood has fallen off sharply — 14 YTD sales last year, just five this year. Upper Saddle River is running hot. Alpine and Cresskill are running cold — between them, 49 currently-active $2M+ listings and a combined six closed sales all year. For a qualified buyer with flexibility on town, that divergence is not an inconvenience. It's a map of where to push on price.

A brand-new listing this week in one of Bergen's quietly strongest markets. Ho-Ho-Kus produced one of only two $5M+ closings the entire county has seen in 2026 — punching well above its size at the top of the market. Set on a full acre with Northern Highlands district access, 7 Deerhill is a reimagined Colonial built for how buyers at this tier actually live: an open-concept kitchen anchored by an oversized island, three fireplaces (including one outdoors), a walk-out lower level with wet bar and full bath, and a heated in-ground pool framed by mature landscaping. Three-car garage, owned solar, five bedrooms and five-and-a-half baths. Priced to meet the market, not above it.