In 2021, a $1M budget put you above the median in nine of ten Union County single-family towns. Five years later, that same budget is near or below the midpoint in four. The shift isn't about what $1M is worth — it's about where these markets moved.
Freddie Mac's October 8 survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, up from 7.28% the prior week. A year ago it averaged 6.30%. Rates are moving in the wrong direction, but this week's Union County data makes the case that rates are only half the story — prices have been doing their own damage, quietly, since 2021.
In 2021, a $1M budget cleared the median in nine of ten Union County single-family towns. Only Summit — at a $1,175,000 median across 336 closed sales — sat above it. Westfield was $900,000. New Providence $740,000. Berkeley Heights $680,000. At $1M, you were comfortably above the midpoint in virtually any address on this list.
By 2026, three more towns have crossed above $1M. Westfield is now at $1,455,500. New Providence $1,263,000. Berkeley Heights $1,030,000. Summit is at $1,837,500. In each of those four, $1M now sits below the median — not outside the market, but below its midpoint. Mountainside, at $999,999, is at effective parity. The towns where $1M still clears the median: Scotch Plains ($958,250), Cranford ($875,500), Fanwood ($800,000), Clark ($779,500), Springfield ($765,000).
Every town moved in the same direction. The range was +35% in Springfield to +71% in New Providence. But the percentages don't fully capture the positional shift. In 2021, $1M in Scotch Plains was 54% above the $650,000 median. In 2026, the same $1M is 4% above the $958,250 median. Same budget. Different position in the market.
For move-up buyers — owners in one of these towns considering a purchase in another — both sides of that equation have moved. Equity in a home purchased before 2022 has generally tracked these figures. The cost of the next home has too. How those two numbers interact, including current carrying costs at 7.40%, is the actual decision. That's what the VALUE and FEED replies below are designed to open.
Summit: $1,175,000 (2021) → $1,837,500 (2026) +56%
Westfield: $900,000 → $1,455,500 +62%
New Providence: $740,000 → $1,263,000 +71%
Berkeley Heights: $680,000 → $1,030,000 +51%
Scotch Plains: $650,000 → $958,250 +47%
Cranford: $599,000 → $875,500 +46%
Fanwood: $550,000 → $800,000 +45%
Mountainside: $704,000 → $999,999 +42%
Clark: $565,000 → $779,500 +38%
Springfield: $565,000 → $765,000 +35%
GSMLS, Union County, Single Family (SinglFam), Status S+SD. 2021: full-year 01/01/2021–12/31/2021 (2,389 records). 2026: 01/01/2026–09/30/2026 (1,054 records). 10 selected towns only — not all of Union County. Periods are not matched; full-year vs. nine-month comparisons may reflect seasonal mix differences. Changes in median reflect both price movement and the mix of homes sold, not per-home appreciation. Data pulled 2026-10-09. 2021 N: Summit336, Westfield476, New Providence171, Berkeley Heights203, Scotch Plains327, Cranford245, Fanwood133, Mountainside110, Clark207, Springfield180. 2026 N: Summit110, Westfield202, New Providence87, Berkeley Heights79, Scotch Plains154, Cranford136, Fanwood62, Mountainside53, Clark86, Springfield85.
1670 King St in Scotch Plains is listed at $999,000. The 2026 Scotch Plains median across 154 closed single-family sales is $958,250 — so this listing sits 4% above the town midpoint. In 2021, the Scotch Plains median was $650,000; a $999K purchase then was 54% above the midpoint. Same asking price. Different position in the market. MLS#4057787, active on GSMLS.
In 2021, $1M cleared the median in nine of ten Union County single-family towns. In 2026, it clears six — but the towns where it sits below the midpoint have changed. Summit, Westfield, New Providence, and Berkeley Heights have all crossed above $1M. Mountainside is at effective parity at $999,999. The $1M position hasn't disappeared; it's moved. For most readers, the more useful question is how both sides of a move-up transaction have changed since 2021 — not just the cost of the next home, but the equity in the current one.
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS and GSMLS Union SFH exports described above.
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